「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」指定席の当選確率を上げる方法




東京ディズニーランドで毎晩開催されているプロジェクションマッピング・ショー「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」は、これ目当てで夜から入園する人が大勢いるほどの人気です。
シンデレラ城全体に映像を映すので、園内のいろいろな場所から見る事が出来ますが、全体を見渡せるプラザのパートナー像のそばなどは、午後の早い時間から場所取りが始まるので、良いところで見ようと思うと、時間や熱意が必要になって来ます。

ONCE

「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」の抽選率を上げる方法

「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」も見たいけれど、他のアトラクションやショーも楽しみたい、という人はやはり抽選でお城の前の指定席をゲットするのがいちばんでしょう。

とはいえ、この抽選がなかなか当たらないという嘆きの声もネット上などには数多く上がっています。
「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」の抽選は、「ワンマンズ・ドリームII ザ・マジック・リブズ・オン」と同じ機械による抽選方法をとっています。

抽選が出来るのはパスポート1枚につき1回だけなので、1日2回実施される「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」のどちらかひとつにしか申し込みが出来ません。
まさにワンチャンスなので、少しでも当選確率を上げる方法があれば、それを試さないのは損でしょう。

まず、知っておくべきなのは「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」の当選確率はどのくらいかという事です。
シンデレラ城前の指定席はツアーなどであらかじめ確保されている物をのぞくと2千席ぐらいと考えられます。1日2回ですから4千席ぐらいは指定席がある訳です。
入園者数は少ない日でも2万人、多い日には6万人近くになりますが、入園者のすべてが抽選をするとは限りません。
計算をしやすくするために、平均4万人が抽選すると仮定すると当選確率は10%となります。

10人中9人は外れるのですから、なかなか当たらない訳です。
とはいっても、1回目のショーと2回目のショーでは当選確率はかなり違う筈です。
というのは、「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」1回目が20時50分、2回目が21時40分とかなり遅い時間のスタートなので、遠くから来ている人や子供づれの人の多くは1回目のショーに申し込むと考えられます。

となると、1回目のショーよりも2回目のショーの方が当選する確率は高いと考えられます。
当選確率を少しでも上げたいのならば、2回目のショーを選ぶのが良いという事になります。

「ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム」の抽選器は、いつ抽選しても当たり外れの差が出ないようなシステムを利用していると言われています。
開園直後は指定席数が2千席あるので、当選しやすいように思いますが、そうならないように当選率をコントロールして、抽選締め切り近くになっても必ず当選者が出るようにしているらしいのです。

しかし、多くの人が抽選をする開園直後から午前中にかけて、当選者数を少なくすると締め切り近くに大量の当選者を出さなければならなくなります。
そうならないように、入園者数や時間帯別の抽選をする人の数などを統計的に調べて、当選確率を調整している事が考えられます。
という事は、やはり午前中の列が長く出来る時間帯は、当選確率は変わらなくても多数の当選者が出るように設定されているという事が考えられます。
そして、次に抽選のピークが来るのは、スターライト6などの時間指定パスポートで入れるようになる午後から夕方にも、当選者数を多くするだろうという事が考えられます。
実際、こういう時間帯には次々に当選者が出る事も多いようです。
そして、もうひとつの狙い目は締め切り間際です。
抽選の締め切り間際は、残っている席数が少ないのですが、締め切り間際になって抽選する人が少ないため、相対的に当選確率が上がる場合があると考えられます。
以上のような方法は、数学的には正しくないかもしれませんが、わずかでも当選確率が上げたいのならば、試してみても損はないのではないでしょうか。

ワンス・アポン・ア・タイム 東京 ディズニーランド シンデレラ城 キャッスル プロジェクション マッピング Once Upon a time

141 件のコメント

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